Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated and posted falsely that undocumented immigrants are receiving Social Security and Medicare benefits and threatening the solvency of both programs. For example, on March 21, 2024, he said in a social media post: “Unlike the Democrats, who are KILLING SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE by allowing the INVASION OF THE MIGRANTS, I will NOT, under any circumstance, allow either of these two precious GEMS to be even touched under a Trump Administration. Biden is killing them both with the INVASION, while at the same time destroying our Country! MAGA2024.” Trump repeated a similar claim in a town hall on Fox News this month: “They’re filling up and loading up Social Security, Medicare, with illegal immigrants that have come into our country.”
This is another one of Trump’s numerous lies; undocumented immigrants do not receive most federal benefits, including Social Security and Medicare, and in fact, their presence improves the finances of both entitlement programs. Moreover, Donald Trump’s own tax plans threaten the two programs, pushing them toward insolvency earlier and more severe benefit cuts once insolvency is reached. Indeed, Trump’s plans would move up the expected insolvency date of Social Security from 2035 to 2033 and the expected insolvency date of Medicare from 2036 to 2030.
Undocumented immigrants cannot receive Social Security or Medicare benefits but must pay into the programs
By law, one must “either be a U.S. citizen or lawfully present noncitizen in order to receive monthly Social Security benefits.” Similarly, Medicare benefits are only available to “U.S. citizens and qualified lawfully present immigrants age 65 and older.” In other words, undocumented immigrants—who are not lawfully present—cannot receive these benefits, even though their work strengthens these trust funds.
Evidence suggests that federal government processes are overwhelmingly effective at not improperly paying out benefits, including to undocumented immigrants. The rate of all improper payments for Social Security is less than 1 percent of total benefits paid, suggesting that there are not large numbers of undocumented immigrants wrongfully collecting benefits.
Payroll taxes fund Social Security benefits and Medicare Part A inpatient hospital benefits by depositing money into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, while other Medicare programs are funded through a mixture of premium payments and general revenue. For decades, more tax revenue flowed into those trust funds than benefits paid out, creating “reserves” in the trust funds. Primarily because the United States is aging and has seen declining fertility rates in recent decades, there are fewer workers relative to the number of beneficiaries. This has led to more money flowing out in benefits than is flowing in through tax revenue. In 1984, there were more than four working-age people for every senior; yet today, there are less than three, and that number is on its way down further.
Growing income inequality is also harmful for Social Security solvency: Only the first $168,600 of income—a threshold indexed to inflation—is subject to Social Security taxation. As a greater share of total payroll accrues above that “tax max,” a shrinking share of payroll contributes to the Social Security trust fund. This means that the programs are drawing down reserves. In fact, the trustees who oversee the programs expect the Social Security trust fund to run out of reserves in 2035 and the Medicare trust fund to run out of reserves in 2036. After that date, benefits for both programs would be cut.
Undocumented immigrants and their employers are legally required to pay payroll taxes on their wages, even though they are not eligible for benefits from the programs funded by payroll taxes. In 2013, the chief actuary for Social Security estimated that about 3.1 million undocumented immigrants paid $13 billion in Social Security payroll taxes in 2010. And recent analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy indicates undocumented immigrants now pay $32.1 billion into Social Security and Medicare every year.
Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that recent immigrants without a durable status as well as their children will pay $443 billion in payroll taxes over the next decade. The CBO’s analysis included both recent immigrants who are eligible for benefits under existing law and others who are not—projecting that, overall, they will increase Social Security and Medicare outlays by $2 billion over the next decade. This suggests recent immigrants without a durable status and their children will lead to about a $440 billion improvement in the finances of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.*
Experts across the aisle agree that immigration improves Social Security and Medicare solvency
Several experts have identified the basic arithmetic that immigrants improve the solvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds.
For instance, CBO Director and Bush administration official Phillip Swagel testified earlier this year:
We looked carefully at the composition of the immigration surge, and they’re very heavily skewed toward working-age adults. These immigrants have a high propensity to work, and they have a strong incentive to work on the books once they receive authorization—generally within six months. Many of them will face a hearing in seven to 10 years, and working on the books will let them demonstrate attachment. So all of that means more revenue for Social Security, [which] improves the financial situation of the Social Security system.
And Stephen Goss, chief actuary for Social Security, told the Senate Budget Committee last year:
Yes, increased immigration would be expected to improve the actuarial status of the Social Security trust funds … In the sensitivity analysis in the 2023 Trustees Report, we estimate that an increase in the level of average annual net immigration from the intermediate assumption of 1.245 million people per year to 1.683 million people per year (an increase of about 35 percent) would reduce the 75-year OASDI [Social Security trust fund] actuarial deficit from 3.61 percent of taxable payroll to 3.21 percent.
During the Trump administration, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ analysis of the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund stated that “Higher net immigration results in smaller HI cash flow deficits.”
Trump campaign claims about immigration reform are also baseless
The Trump campaign is also running an ad that makes a somewhat different claim: “Attention seniors: Kamala Harris has promised amnesty for the 10 million illegals she allowed in as border czar, making them eligible for Social Security. Studies warn this will lead to cuts in your Social Security benefits.” This claim is also baseless, and Vice President Harris has made no such promise. Harris is not in charge of the border as vice president and, in fact, supports robust bipartisan legislation to secure the border, which Trump blocked to seek a political advantage.
Commonsense comprehensive reform legislation that includes an earned path to citizenship—which Harris supports—would reduce the deficit and improve the finances of Social Security and Medicare. For example, the CBO estimated that the 2013 bipartisan Senate bill to provide comprehensive immigration reform would have increased Social Security payroll tax revenue by $214 billion, compared with a $3 billion increase in Social Security outlays—which amounts to only a 0.03 percent increase relative to actual Social Security outlays over the 2014–2023 period. According to the CBO, this legislation would have reduced the overall deficit by $900 billion over two decades since tax revenue from comprehensive immigration reform would far outstrip any additional spending.**
Donald Trump’s own tax plan, however, is an actual threat to Social Security and Medicare
Donald Trump has proposed exempting Social Security benefits from income taxes, which would cost an estimated $1.6 trillion over 10 years. Importantly, the revenue from the taxes on benefits goes directly into the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, so eliminating that revenue source would move up the date that the trust funds exhaust and benefits get cut. The Center for American Progress Action Fund estimates that this would move up the date that the Social Security trust fund becomes insolvent from 2035 to 2033 and the date the Medicare trust fund becomes insolvent from 2036 to 2030.***
Trump’s plans would move up the expected insolvency date of Social Security from 2035 to 2033 and the expected insolvency date of Medicare from 2036 to 2030.
Importantly, not only would benefits be cut sooner, but the ensuing cuts would also be deeper because less money would flow into the trust funds to pay out benefits. For example, the across-the-board cut to benefits when the Social Security trust fund exhausts would increase from the currently scheduled 21 percent to 25 percent, according to analysis by Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Trump’s mass deportation agenda would hurt the economy, whereas an earned path to citizenship would strengthen it
Carrying out the mass deportation of millions of long-term workers and families would harm the economy. Many industries that are key to the U.S. economy rely on the hard, and often dangerous, work of undocumented workers. Rounding up longtime members of American communities, sending them to detention camps, and then deporting them, as Trump plans to do, would tear apart families and harm local communities, including large and small businesses that employ undocumented workers. The contributions of undocumented immigrants, even while they lack any durable legal status, strengthen the country. In fact, a recent Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy analysis found that, each year, undocumented workers pay $59.4 billion in federal tax contributions and $37.3 billion in state and local tax contributions.
Each year, undocumented workers pay $59.4 billion in federal tax contributions and $37.3 billion in state and local tax contributions.
Contrary to the false narrative about immigration reform harming the economy, an earned path to citizenship for the millions of undocumented immigrants living and working across the United States would boost American economic growth, increasing U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), raising wages, and creating new jobs. Moreover, immigrants, regardless of their legal status, are a boon for the solvency of Social Security and Medicare. Indeed, the trustees who are charged with overseeing the Social Security and Medicare programs estimate that high-immigration scenarios lead to higher solvency for the programs.
* The ratio of savings to cost is expected to change somewhat after the first decade, but nonetheless, these immigrants will continue to contribute and have a large net positive contribution to Social Security and Medicare.
** The CBO does not separate payroll tax revenue from income tax revenue in its two-decade analysis, so the authors cannot calculate a precise improvement in Social Security and/or Medicare finances, but the $74 billion in increased Social Security and Medicare outlays over two decades is certainly dwarfed by the increase in payroll tax revenue.
*** This analysis is based on the Social Security and Medicare trustees’ reports. It reduces expected reserves by expected income tax revenue since exemption Social Security benefits from taxes would cut off the funding source of the programs.