Washington, D.C. — A new Center for American Progress Action Fund analysis shows that support for Democrats among union voters grew in 2020 and 2022 after decreasing in 2016 and 2018. Should this trend continue, the report finds that it could have major effects on the 2024 election.
More specifically, this CAP Action analysis finds that:
- Democratic candidates increased their vote share among union members compared with nonunion members over the past two election cycles, winning union voters by 7.7 percentage points in 2020 and by 12.3 percentage points in 2022. In 2016, that margin was only 4.4 percentage points, and it was only 5.5 percentage points in 2018.
- Working-class union voters were more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in 2020 and 2022 than in 2016 and 2018. Union workers without a four-year college degree supported Democratic candidates by a margin of 7.2 percentage points in 2022 over nonunion working-class voters, compared with a margin of less than 1 percent in 2018.
- White union voters were 12 percentage points more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate than white nonunion voters in 2022 and 8.5 percentage points more likely in 2020, compared with 4.3 percentage points more likely in 2016 and 4.7 percentage points more likely in 2018.
- Hispanic union workers have been increasingly more likely to vote for Democrats compared with Hispanic nonunion workers in every election since 2016, reaching a margin of 14.4 percentage points in 2022.
- Much of the increase in Democratic candidates’ advantage among union members has been driven in part by service-sector workers, who were 7.8 percentage points more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate in 2022 compared with nonunion service workers, but no more likely to vote for Democratic candidates in 2018.
“The Biden-Harris administration has been the most pro-union administration in decades. Their efforts to push policies that help the working class, such as passing landmark investments in union jobs and protecting workers’ rights to organize, could have an impact on the election this fall,” said David Madland, senior fellow at CAP Action, senior adviser for the American Worker Project, and co-author of the report. “Democratic candidates’ promises on the campaign trail and in office likely led to the increase in union support for Democrats in 2020 and 2022. These efforts to protect unions might pay off in 2024 as well.”
Read the brief: “Since 2020, Union Member Support for Democrats Has Increased” by David Madland and Aurelia Glass
For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Sarah Nadeau at [email protected].